What’s really going on with high-speed rail in the U.S.?

Busting myths and laying out the high-speed rail state of play, from Brightline West to Texas Central.

A Brightline West high-speed train, zooming past traffic on I-15 in the Mojave desert. (Rendering courtesy of Siemens)

High-speed rail has been all over the news lately. Much of the attention has been focused on Brightline West, which is often erroneously described as America’s first high-speed rail line. In fact, the under-construction project connecting Southern California and Las Vegas is actually the nation’s third high-speed rail project to break ground, and will probably be the second to begin service. 

This post is intended to clear up any lingering confusion about what’s happening with high-speed rail in the U.S. It remains unclear whether America can turn the corner on high-speed rail and finally embrace the technology that so many other countries have enjoyed for decades. But there’s undoubtedly more momentum in this space than there has ever been before. 

Three high-speed rail projects are currently under construction.

Brightline West has the billionaire owner, the Las Vegas flash, and all of the hype that comes with being the new kid on the block. But it ain’t first. 

The Acela service on the Northeast Corridor, which debuted in 2000, is technically high-speed rail, reaching the widely accepted speed threshold of 150 miles per hour for a short stretch. Even though it’s not high-speed for the entire duration of its run, the Acela has been a smashing success, generating profits that help fund the rest of the Amtrak network and utterly cannibalizing the airline market share for short-haul trips in the Northeast. 

The Acela, and its older brother, the Northeast Regional, are getting a massive slate of upgrades through the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. These projects, combined with new trains that can reach speeds of up to 160mph, will ultimately make the Acela more high-speed than it is today, shaving a projected 54 minutes off of Washington to Boston trip times by 2035. 

Then there’s California High-Speed Rail, which broke ground in 2015. Dissertations could be written on what went wrong with this project; indeed, Ezra Klein is writing a book about it. But despite myriad challenges, construction is well underway for the initial segment connecting Bakersfield and Merced in the Central Valley, which is expected to be complete in the early 2030s. It will take another $3-$4 billion funding infusion to finish that initial segment, and tens of billions more to complete the voter approved San Francisco to Los Angeles line. But essential elements of the full project are moving forward, like “The Portal” tunnel connecting the existing Caltrain tracks to the Transbay Transit Center in downtown San Francisco, Caltrain electrification, and the Link US project bringing through-running tracks to Union Station in LA. 

Finally, there’s Brightline West, which officially broke ground in April. That project will connect Las Vegas and the Inland Empire suburb of Rancho Cucamonga, where riders can transfer to regional trains to downtown LA. Though private capital is paying for some of the project, that’s only part of the story. It’s also using $2.5 billion in tax-exempt private activity bonds as well as a $3 billion grant from the IIJA, the same amount that California High-Speed Rail received this year.

Brightline claims the project will be ready by the 2028 Olympics in LA. It’s an unbelievable timeline. But, if Brightline can meet it, and pull off everything else it promises, it could offer a template to other high-speed rail projects across the country. 

Houston and Dallas could be the next high-speed rail corridor, thanks to Amtrak and ‘Train Daddy’

Houston to Dallas high-speed rail concepts have been floating around for years. About five years ago, it looked like a company called Texas Central was finally going to make it happen with Japanese bullet trains. But when the pandemic hit, the project fell apart, just like its predecessors.

Now, it just might be back from the dead. Last year, Amtrak hired former New York MTA head Andy ‘Train Daddy’ Byford to lead its high-speed rail development program. It appears that Byford wants to begin in Texas with the Dallas to Houston corridor. I recently covered this project in-depth for CityLab. The gist is that it’s already quite far along, having secured most of the required regulatory approvals. The remaining question is whether it can cobble together an unprecedented $30 billion, or more, public/private financing package, and maneuver around a conservative state government that is tepid about the idea, at best. 

High-speed rail projects under construction (bold red) and under development (red dotted line). Credit: Federal Railroad Administration

Several more projects are being studied by state departments of transportation.

As the above projects crawl forward, others are still incubating. The Federal Railroad Administration recently issued grants for states to study four more high-speed rail routes: Atlanta to Charlotte; Portland to Seattle and Vancouver; Fort Worth to Dallas; and the High-Desert Corridor in California. The Fort Worth to Dallas project could ultimately be an extension of the Houston to Dallas high-speed line, and the High Desert Corridor would serve as a connector between Brightline West and California High Speed Rail. These proposals show the initial glimmers of larger, interconnected regional high-speed rail networks.   

Another project to put in this bucket is the extension of Brightline Florida to the Orlando theme parks and Tampa. Brightline Florida, which currently goes from Miami to the Orlando airport, is technically “higher-speed” rail, reaching speeds of up to 125mph. The extension is still in planning, but both the company and state officials seem to want to move things forward. 

Other high-speed rail projects have been studied include New York to Albany and Chicago to Minneapolis, though it looks like planners in these regions are targeting more incremental improvements to existing track rather than building out new high-speed rail alignments. (Readers: let me know if I’m missing any other serious high-speed rail proposals.) 

High-speed rail rebranded

All of the above projects, with the exception of Brightline West and the Acela upgrades, will likely require new federal funding sources in order to be completed. Congressman Seth Moulton started that conversation in March with the introduction of the High-Speed Rail Act, which would allocate $205 billion to high-speed rail projects over five years. 

Moulton’s bill doesn’t have a chance in an election year with a divided Congress. But it represents an opening salvo for negotiations around the next five year surface transportation reauthorization — essentially, the next infrastructure bill. 

There are early indications that getting high-speed rail into that bill will be easier than in previous years. California Republicans in Congress, led by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, have long sought to block federal funds for California High-Speed Rail. But now McCarthy is out of Congress, and CAHSR is no longer the face of high-speed rail in America. What’s more, Republicans are beginning to warm up to high-speed rail in their home states. 

Just this week, Newsweek pressed Texas GOP Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz on the Dallas to Houston high-speed rail project, and both indicated they would be open to supporting it. 

One factor behind this change in tone could be the Biden Administration’s efforts to keep mum on California High-Speed Rail, even as they continue to fund it. Instead, the administration has kept the spotlight on what they describe as the “privately funded” Brightline West project, America’s “first” true high-speed rail line. Increasingly, the public/private Texas project could become the media darling du jour. 

This trend reflects poorly on California High-Speed Rail. But in the end, it could work to the project’s benefit, giving planners and politicians the breathing room they need to bring it to fruition. If it’s ever going to reach LA and San Francisco, CAHSR will likely do so on the coattails of Brightline West and Texas Central.  

The famous fantasy U.S. High-Speed Rail map, by Alfred Twu

Don’t sleep on conventional rail

True high-speed rail is incredibly expensive and complex to construct. It’s a huge investment that only really makes sense for the busiest travel corridors connecting the biggest cities. Alfred Twu’s beautiful national high-speed rail map is an inspiration, but it’s not gonna happen anytime soon. 

The vast majority of passenger rail improvements in the coming years will be to conventional services, running at speeds of up to 79 miles per hour. These services can travel on much of the nation’s existing rail network, and still offer competitive trip times to driving. With safety upgrades, some existing corridors can handle trains traveling 110mph or greater. 

That’s what’s happening in the Southeast Corridor, where recent federal grants will significantly speed trips from Raleigh to Richmond, VA,  Washington, DC, and the rest of the Northeast Corridor. With a connection on the other end to the proposed Atlanta to Charlotte high-speed rail corridor, there just might be the beginnings of a new Eastern Corridor, linking all of the big cities from Georgia to Massachusetts. This vision is still a long way off. But maybe not as distant as Americans once thought.