Will Trump derail America’s high-speed rail plans?

Unlike his last term, much of the nation’s high-speed rail action is happening in red states. That could be significant.

This ain’t Texas… yet. (Credit: Itaru via Wikimedia Commons)

Something that unironically used to be great about America is passenger rail. America really was first to many of the industry’s technological milestones. In the early 20th century, the nation built the world’s first all-electric station at Grand Central Terminal. In the 1930s, streamliner trains developed in the U.S. pioneered design innovations (like multiple-unit engines and aerodynamic train bodies) that would prove essential to the eventual development of high-speed rail. At one point that decade, the U.S. had the top ten fastest passenger rail services globally.¹

You know the rest of the story. It was American carnage on the tracks until “Amtrak” Joe Biden assumed office. The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act was a boon for all types of passenger rail projects, but its impact on high-speed rail was particularly significant. The bill put the California project on track to complete its initial segment in the Central Valley. It provided funds for the Brightline West project between Las Vegas and SoCal to break ground. And it rekindled the prospect of a Dallas to Houston bullet train. Sparks were flying. 

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, this nascent high-speed rail boomlet is in serious jeopardy (to say nothing of the many other far more important matters at stake). It’s safe to assume that the Trump Administration will not support high-speed rail development to the same degree as the Biden-Harris Administration. But there’s reason to believe high-speed rail could fare better than other aspects of the outgoing administration’s agenda. 

What’s really going on with high-speed rail in the U.S.?

During Trump’s last term, the California project was the extent of the nation’s high-speed rail program. Like his fellow Republicans, Trump was no fan of California High-Speed Rail, canceling a $900 million grant which the Biden Administration subsequently reinstated. Trump will likely remain hostile to this fully publicly-funded, extremely expensive, and incredibly challenging project entirely within the boundaries of the nation's biggest, bluest state. 

There’s no sugarcoating it: Prospects for California High-Speed Rail are not good. Ditto for Northeast Corridor projects championed by Senator Chuck Schumer and most Amtrak-led conventional rail projects. Personal vendettas and Project 2025-style budget cuts are in all likelihood going to be the guiding principles of the Trump Administration’s transportation policy.

“I would be very worried about money that could be taken off the table; all plans are at risk,” former Amtrak executive Joe McHugh told Trains.com in an election post-mortem. 

But the high-speed rail industry has matured a great deal since Trump last occupied the White House, and all kinds of political and economic assumptions are in flux. High-speed rail is increasingly a public-private industry, which could cause the administration to view it in a more positive light. Plus, the California project is no longer the only one underway.

In 2023, Brightline opened its higher-speed (125 mph) link between Miami and Orlando, which has quickly become the nation’s second-busiest passenger rail line after the Northeast Corridor. This mostly privately-funded project has been welcomed in deep-red Florida. State and local officials now appear eager to see the system expand to the Tampa area. The state’s Department of Transportation is preserving right-of-way on Interstate-4 for the railroad’s eventual use.

In 2024, a $3 billion IIJA grant enabled Brightline West to begin construction on its true high-speed (200 mph) route connecting Las Vegas and Southern California. This nominally private sector endeavor is the largest infrastructure project in the crucial swing state of Nevada, and Las Vegas leaders view it as a key part of their economic development strategy. It may not be in Trump’s interest to meddle with. In fact, he may find it beneficial to at least rhetorically throw his support behind Brightline West, especially if it seems like it can actually open for business by the 2028 Olympics in LA. 

Is this a new era for high-speed rail in America?

Another high-speed rail proposal that’s currently in the early planning stages would connect Atlanta and Charlotte. Should that double swing state project find a private sector champion, it could enjoy a warm reception in Washington. 

A model could be percolating in Texas. Amtrak is currently looking to move the stalled Dallas to Houston bullet train forward with a public-private funding package “the likes of which we’ve never seen,” Amtrak high-speed rail head Andy Byford told me this spring. The state’s two GOP Senators, including recently re-elected Ted Cruz, have offered tacit support for the project.

Whether Amtrak retains any high-speed rail program at all, and whether the Texas project remains on track, could depend a great deal on these two men. 

Cruz, ranking member on the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, is now in line to be chair. In that role, he’d have both oversight and bully pulpit power over Amtrak. He could help shepherd the Texas bullet train to fruition, or squash it. 

For his part, Byford has a history of leaving high-profile posts when he disagrees with his boss. That’s what he did as leader of New York’s MTA, when conflict with Governor Andrew Cuomo got too hot. If Byford is to remain at Amtrak, he will likely have to demonstrate that the national railroad can play the role of coordinator for public-private partnerships. That’s an enormous challenge. But it could be easier than running a fully public sector transit agency, like the MTA, while Trump is in power. 

High-speed rail boosters have one more reason for long-term optimism, which I’ll discuss in a subsequent post. This technology is becoming so widespread around the world, and so beneficial wherever it’s rolled out, that self-interest and national pride are beginning to affect America’s high-speed rail calculus. In other words, the trains are starting to speak Trump’s language.  

1. See Robert E Gallamore and John R. Meyer, American Railroads: Decline and Renaissance in the 20th Century and Christian Wolmar, The Great Railroad Revolution: The History of Trains in America.